Taiwan 2025
A Year to Watch Closely
2025 is a year that deserves close attention regarding the Taiwan issue. Top State Department officials’ distinct views on Taiwan may complicate the administration’s Taiwan policy. In the meantime, the heated debate among Chinese netizens about the pros and cons of using force to bring the island back to its “motherland” has not made it any easier for the Chinese government either.
According to multiple media reports, a vocal MAGA intellectual, Darren Beattie, will be appointed as undersecretary of state for public diplomacy. A formal speechwriter in President Trump’s first term, Beattie holds a starkly different view on Taiwan from establishment Republicans like Marco Rubio, the newly confirmed top diplomat at the State Department.
In an X post published in May 2024, Beattie argues that Taiwan’s eventual integration with China is inevitable and not worth resisting. He suggests that a strategic leader (most likely referring to Trump) should acknowledge this reality and leverage it to negotiate significant concessions from China, particularly in Africa and Antarctica.
Rubio, a long-time China hawk, has a starkly different but traditional view on Taiwan with Beattie. In his latest call with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in late January, Rubio “stressed the United States' commitment to our allies in the region and serious concern over China's coercive actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea," according to State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce.
Wang, in turn, warned Rubio, "We will never allow Taiwan to be separated from China." He also urged Rubio to "play a constructive role for the future of the people of China and the US and for the peace and stability of the world," according to a readout by the Chinese foreign ministry.
Coupled with Trump’s transactional nature when it comes to negotiation, undoubtedly, the MAGA wing’s “contrasting” view of Taiwan will complicate the long-term US policy on Taiwan.
Ironically, 2025 is a pivotal year to observe new developments in the Taiwan issue. Several U.S. military officials have suggested on various occasions that China might use force to reclaim Taiwan, with timelines ranging from as early as 2025 to as late as 2027. As 2025 begins, a heated online debate has emerged in China over whether to use force for reunification, weighing its potential advantages and disadvantages.
An article published on December 31 by Sohu.com, one of China’s largest privately owned news websites, stated, “With the current strength of the People’s Liberation Army, China has long possessed the capability to liberate Taiwan.” The article then was written at a considerable length, pointing out that “if the Chinese military intends to resolve the Taiwan issue through force, it will face three major challenges.” According to this article, the three main challenges are China’s consistent preference for peaceful reunification and using force only as a last resort, the potential for unfavorable international opinion toward China due to using force, and the governance issues that might arise in Taiwan after using force. The article concluded that peaceful unification remains a priority.
Another article published by Tencent News, a popular news website in China, on January 8, refutes a report by Taiwanese media claiming that “China’s paramilitary police forces are undergoing specialized training in waterborne and urban combat and may play an important role in a future ‘unification by force’ operation against Taiwan.” It argues that “the People’s Liberation Army, as its name suggests, has the core mission of liberating and reclaiming lost territories when needed.” Nevertheless, the article emphasizes that peaceful negotiations, goodwill, and wisdom are the best ways to resolve cross-strait tensions.
During the few days before and shortly after the beginning of 2025, a preliminary review of articles on Taiwan published on mainland China's websites reveals that the majority emphasize peaceful unification as the primary option, with military force as a contingency option, which is a long-time view held by the Chinese government.
That being said, balancing the two approaches—peaceful reunification and the use of force—has long been a challenge for the Chinese government. A recent statement from the spokesperson of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council regarding the timeline for using force serves as yet another example of this dilemma.
In December 2024, Yan Xuetong, a renowned professor in international relations at Tsinghua University, published an article in Foreign Affairs. He pointed out that the topic of Taiwan's independence has always been, and will continue to be, a source of friction between Beijing and Washington, but it is unlikely that China and the United States will go to war over it. Yan predicted that Beijing’s primary focus will be reviving China’s slowing economy over the next four years. He wrote that China does not intend to set a timeline for unification with Taiwan because its top priority is its own economic growth.
Yan’s views quickly garnered attention. On December 25, during a press conference, a reporter from China Central Television asked Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, about Yan’s view that the next four years will be focused on revitalizing the economy and that no timeline will be set for unification with Taiwan.
Chen Binhua responded:
This is a scholar’s personal opinion. I want to emphasize that since 1949, the Communist Party of China, the Chinese government, and the Chinese people have consistently regarded resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving complete national reunification as a historic mission to which they are unwaveringly committed. The motherland must and will be reunified, as this is an inevitable requirement of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new era.
In his response, Chen neither denied nor endorsed Yan’s view. He stressed that unification with Taiwan is a certainty for China, though he did not address the specific methods and timeline of unification.
In his latest New Year’s speech, China’s President Xi Jinping reiterated that no one can stop China's reunification with Taiwan. It is a standard language in Chinese presidents’ New Year speeches. Xi's more interesting response regarding Taiwan was in a meeting in April 2023 with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. He stated, “The United States is attempting to provoke us into reclaiming Taiwan, but we will not fall for it.” Xi’s words suggest that he is not eager to use force to unify Taiwan anytime soon; rather, China will act at its own pace.
In China’s academic field, the topic of whether to use force to unify is also a constant debate. As early as 2020, Qiao Liang, a major general in the Chinese Air Force and a professor at China’s National Defense University, published an article arguing that China must not dance to America’s tune on the Taiwan issue.
Qiao wrote:
In today’s world, economic sovereignty, financial sovereignty, cyber sovereignty, defense sovereignty, resource sovereignty, food sovereignty, investment sovereignty, biological sovereignty, cultural sovereignty, and discourse sovereignty—all aspects concerning national interests and survival—are part of national sovereignty. Never assume that only territorial sovereignty relates to the core interests of a nation. Other forms of sovereignty are equally vital core interests and, in some cases, even more urgent and decisive for survival and death.
Qiao’s article drew huge backlash from people who are pro-force in Taiwan. Critics of his article assert that while General Qiao argues against using force to take Taiwan due to the risk of harming China's rejuvenation and triggering sanctions, such consequences would arise regardless of timing. In a sarcastic tone, they suggest that instead of emphasizing the risks, Qiao might consider advocating for abandoning forceful reunification—or even reunification itself—like some other experts.
The two camps recently ignited yet another round of debate on this topic. Xiao Zhifu, a research fellow at the Kunlun Policy Research Institute, published an article in February last year, stating that to liberate Taiwan, China must truly fight; it must prepare for a large-scale war, and it must fight until Taiwan surrenders.
The Kunlun Policy Research Institute is a privately-run news commentary platform in mainland China with an extreme political stance, advocating Maoist ideology.
After reading Xiao’s article, renowned U.S.-based commentator KS Liu wrote a response, which was published on the US-China Perception Monitor’s Chinese website. In his article, KS Liu analyzed a number of major challenges the mainland faces in using force to unify Taiwan and the difficulties posed by modern technologies, making all pre-war preparations highly challenging. KS Liu argues that while forceful unification of Taiwan is possible, it should not be underestimated as an easy task.
While the Trump administration is preparing to roll out a slate of ambitious policy agendas, the Chinese government has buckled down to respond like leaders in other world capitals. The Taiwan issue is a complex challenge not only for China but also for the United States, where differing views further complicate the situation. The year 2025 will be especially important to watch in this regard.
Juan Zhang is a senior writer for the U.S.-China Perception Monitor and managing editor for 中美印象 (The Monitor’s Chinese language publication).
The views expressed in this article represent those of the author(s) and not those of The Carter Center.
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That’s all from Atlanta. Y’all be good.
Taiwan is the same as South Korea and formerly South Vietnam. If North Korea will start an invasion of South Korea then there is a very large war and if China invade Taiwan then that will also will start a big war as well.