Taiwan: President Lai’s Trials and Tribulations
Sailing has been far from smooth
Taiwan: President Lai’s Trials and Tribulations
On January 24, 2024, Vice President Lai Cheng-te was elected Taiwan’s new president. He was inaugurated on May 20. For a year plus, President Lai has experienced serious difficulties governing, carrying on foreign relations, and more.
To many observers, this was unexpected. Lai’s background and experience prepared him for the job, He graduated from medical school at Taiwan’s best university, He soon went into politics and succeeded there. He was a legislator (1999 to 2010), mayor of Tainan (2010 to 2017), premier (2017 to 2019), and vice president (2021to 2024). President Tsai Ing-wen supported his election.
Lai is handsome, eloquent, energetic, and charismatic. He faced no competition in his party, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, for the nomination to run for the presidency.
Hsiao Bi-khim was Lai’s running mate. Perfectly bilingual (Chinese and English), she served as Taiwan’s representative to the United States before joining the Lai ticket.
After his election, Lai’s party, the DPP and Taiwan’s media, together with the anti-China foreign media, celebrated the unprecedented third such election win in a row for the DPP.
It was reported to be a pivotal moment. The Nationalist Party (KMT) was called “down and out.”
But, as it turned out, this was not quite the case. Lai received only 40 percent of the popular vote. The KMT’s candidate, together with the Taiwan People’s Party’s (TPP) leader, got 60 percent. Had their plan to field a joint candidate held or had Taiwan’s election laws had a provision for a runoff election, Lai would likely not have won.
Worse, the KMT captured the legislature and with its companion party, the TPP, challenged Lai. They diverted much of the national budget to local governments depriving the DPP of funding it needed to operate normally. More altercations followed.
In other words, Lai faced the woes of divided government.
To effectively govern Lai engaged in provoking China to solidify his base and checkmate the KMT with talk of Taiwan’s identity and autonomy. He also weaponized the judiciary to sideline the TPP’s leader, Ko Wen-je, with a charge of putting party funds in his own bank account. Ko was sent to jail. However, the punishment didn’t exactly fit the crime given its precedents.
Lai then launched a recall campaign to try to reduce the number of KMT legislators to gain a DPP legislative majority. This further poisoned DPP-KMT relations. Former President Chen Shui-bian and his Vice President Annette Lu expressed concern that a long “recall war” might ensue.
Then, relations with the United States became a problem for President Lai.
In November 2024, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States. Trump did not side with President Lai. In fact, he warned Lai about goading China, which he thought might lead to a war involving the United States that he did not want. He remarked that Taiwan was closer to China than the United States and said, “I would not like to be you.”
Subsequently, when asked if the United States would defend Taiwan if China invaded, President Trump did not answer.
Trump instead brought up the fact Taiwan’s trade with the United States was heavily imbalanced in favor of Taiwan and mentioned tariffs. Worried about U.S.-Taiwan relations, Lai forthwith promised an additional $100 billion investment in a chip plant in the United States while raising Taiwan’s proposed defense budget to 3 percent of GDP as the United States had recommended.
Taiwan residents were miffed about the United States grabbing what former President Tsai called “our silicon shield” that gives Taiwan global influence. A poll of Taiwan residents at this time indicated 60 percent did not see the U.S., Taiwan’s protector, as trustworthy.
President Lai’s vice president Hsiao Bi-khim might have come to his rescue, having just served as Taiwan’s representative to Washington and who was popular in the United States. But Lai’s relationship with Hsiao didn’t seem the best as Hsiao was very close to former president Tsai Ing-wen and Lai seemed to not want Tsai’s help.
Lai and Tsai were at odds over the role of factions in the DPP. President Tsai had long opposed party factions and strove to limit their influence when she was president. President Lai brought them back and headed the largest one, the New Tide faction.
Meanwhile, China, viewing Lai a diehard advocate of an independent Taiwan, increased its military maneuvers close to Taiwan’s shores causing a spike in public alarm. Making this worse, Beijing pulled off a coup against Lai by persuading a troupe of developing countries to sign on to its plan to bring about Taiwan’s unification. It was reported 70 countries agreed.
In response, Lai proclaimed China a “foreign hostile force” that sought to infiltrate Taiwan from within. Chinese leaders took this to require a strong response and announced some new advances in its military’s invasion capabilities.
Given the uncertainty in Taiwan’s politics, both internal and external, Lai’s favorability ratings in the polls fluctuated mostly downward (to 46 percent positive from 58 percent in May 2024, when Lai was inaugurated) while would-be voters still according to the polls espoused hope for a third political party and Taiwan’s youth were yet expressing support for Ko. Further, some military personnel in Taiwan openly voiced support for China, prompting the Lai administration to take punitive action against them that alienated others.
President Lai then cited provisions from Taiwan’s one-time martial law (terminated by President Chiang Ching-kuo 38 years ago) to cope with China’s influence in Taiwan that he deemed an existential threat, which it seemed it was. But critics called Lai’s move counter to free speech and a reversal of Taiwan’s democratization.
Then, to his embarrassment, three members of President Lai’s party were accused by authorities in Taiwan of taking influence money from Chinese operatives.
At this juncture, the directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics estimated that Taiwan’s economic growth would be below two percent of GDP owing to President Lai’s concessions to President Trump’s demands to correct the trade imbalance.
The end of April, the KMT organized a protest rally against President Lai in front of the Presidential Palace attended by 250,000 residents. The party called for a recall of President Lai. Lai responded with a motion to recall more KMT legislators hoping against hope to finally cancel their majority in the legislature.
According to another poll, while there is little support in Taiwan for becoming part of China, only 4 percent, those that felt it was inevitable was 30 percent—up 8 percent since 2020.
To make matters worse, in May, China’s military sent stealth-capable fighter planes that were not detected even closer to Taiwan’s coast than usual to show its new military capabilities and embarrass Taiwan’s defense officials and President Lai.
Just recently U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth labeled China a major security threat and cited U.S. plans to counter it. Advantage Lai. But neither he nor President Trump cited defending Taiwan.
In conclusion, President Lai has faced serious obstacles governing because of divided government and dealing with a parliament controlled by the opposition, together with knotty foreign policy issues presented by China and the United States.
Alas, Lai has not enjoyed a smooth ride his first year plus in office.
John F. Copper is the Stanley J. Buckman Professor (emeritus) of International Studies at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee. He is the author of more than forty books on China, Taiwan, and U.S. Asia policy.
The views expressed in this article represent those of the author(s) and not those of The Carter Center.
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That’s all from Atlanta. Y’all be good.
China and the pan-Blues in Taiwan seem determined to make Lai fail. Let’s only hope the United States- particularly the Congress and public opinion- will give Lai, who I have known since he was Tainan magistrate early in his career- can avoid any that brings Taiwan closer to military action against the democratically elected government.
Steve Young
Former Director of AIT