Tropical Malady
Just as the U.S. couldn't care less about democracy in Thailand, China proves the more tempting partner
Tropical Malady
Just as the U.S. couldn't care less about democracy in Thailand, China proves the more tempting partner
Thailand is in a complex position as the U.S.-China rivalry enters a new phase following the election of President Donald Trump. Thailand has had a long association with the United States, but the end of the Cold War and China’s growth in the 21st century has brought changes, allowing China and Thailand to grow closer economically and militarily. Currently, the two superpowers are vying for influence in Southeast Asia. The Thai strategy has been to not choose a side, but rather hedge and avoid any strong alignment with either superpower in order to secure its interests. However, China has been making significant inroads in Thailand. Trump becoming President has led to some questions and concerns about what this might mean for Thailand and how it will interact with the two superpowers. I argue that Thailand will become closer to China for better or worse.
This essay looks at Thailand’s current balancing act between China and America and what could change for it with the new U.S. President. The answers are not simple; Thailand will “win” in some instances and “lose” in others if Trump decides to enact his tariff war on China. The upside for Thailand is that products destined for the United States will find new homes, perhaps in Thailand, something that will draw the country closer to China with investments and trade. The downside is that Bangkok is afraid of product dumping and the negative impact it can have on domestic companies. Thailand is also at risk of becoming a target of Trump’s tariff war as the country has a trade surplus with the United States, amounting to about $35.4 billion. Even worse, Bangkok’s friendly relations with China may draw more ire from Trump, who sees any connection with China as a loss and danger for American interests. However, Thai-U.S. economic relations will not be all bad. Thai exports to the United States could replace China. In his first term, Trump did not push Bangkok leaders to enact democratic reform and human rights initiatives, issues that caused Thailand to distance itself from the United States in the past and move towards China. Most likely, he will do the same in his second tenure. It is unclear how the Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will handle this superpower rivalry, but some suspect that her father’s (Thaksin Shinawatra) return to Thailand and previous business dealings with U.S. companies could provide economic opportunities, mitigating some of China’s expansion in the country. However, Trump’s focus is on punishing any nation that he views as hurting the United States economically, and Thailand could be one of his targets, directly or indirectly.
Thailand & the United States
Trump becoming President and his American-centric foreign policy are pushing Thailand further into China’s sphere of influence, a process that began almost two decades ago. Thai-U.S. relations date back to the mid-1800s. Relations were at their strongest during the Cold War when Thailand housed seven air force bases to support U.S. ground and air bombing operations in Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. However, things began changing when Thailand renormalized relations with Beijing in 1975. The major turning points came after the Cold War with the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and the United States pushing Thailand to have more democratic change and respect human rights. When the United States criticized Thai leaders for the military coups in 2006 and 2014, the latter were not happy. For example, under President Barack Obama, in 2010, members of his administration met with Red Shirt leaders, frustrating Thai conservatives and the military. After the 2014 coup, Obama responded by briefly suspending $4.7 million in military aid, about half of annual assistance, and threatened to cancel the 2015 joint military Cobra Gold exercise. Thailand rebuffed the criticism and moved closer to China. Eventually, Obama rescinded his previous threats. Thai leaders did not cut complete ties from Washington but practiced a foreign policy of hedging: not relying or allying fully with either China or the United States, but playing a balancing game to secure its interests when possible. There was a brief reprieve in tensions when Trump became president in 2017 as he was more concerned about geostrategic security issues related to China and not promoting democracy in the region.
A second round with Trump as President will not be like the first when it comes to U.S.-Thai relations because of his stronger focus on economics, trade, and Thailand’s continued financial ties with China. One reason Thailand is concerned about the new U.S. President is the fear of retaliation. Trump has used the term “revenge tour” for domestic issues, but it could also be applied to foreign issues. Thailand just became a partner of BRICS, viewed as anti-U.S. Some Thais think Trump will see this as a zero-sum game where any nation dealing with China makes them an adversary. There is also worry over Thailand’s trade surplus with the United States. According to The Nation, “Under Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, countries perceived as benefiting disproportionately from US economic openness or collaborating with China for economic advantages, rather than firmly supporting the US, face increased scrutiny.” An American think tank had Thailand on its “Trump Risk Index” list. High tariffs are not just a weapon against China but could be directed at Thailand as well. Thai industries projected to be hit the hardest if tariffs are imposed are manufacturing, construction, and agriculture. Hard-disk drives, semiconductors, tires, air conditioners, and solar cells could also be at risk. One only needs to remember how in 2020, Trump reacted to Thailand stopping the imports of U.S. pork by “suspending $817 million in trade preferences for” the country “under the Generalized System of Preferences.”
The second pressing concern for Thailand stems from the U.S. tariff war with China: merchandise dumping. Many of the products intended for the United States will be shipped to other countries, like Thailand. The positive side of this is that Thais will have access to cheaper goods, helping consumers save money. Manufacturers could move their operations out of China, leading Thailand to attract foreign investors, even Chinese companies. However, Thais looking to cut back on spending will buy based on price and not the quality or if its domestic. One person interviewed by the Voice of America complained, “If [customers] have [a] low budget they will say [my socks] are expensive. They don’t consider the materials, [my socks] are much better material and more flexible.”
About 2,000 Thai factories closed in 2023. If Trump puts Thailand in his tariff crosshairs, this could damage Thai exports to the United States, which make up 15% of total exports. The Thai Chamber of Commerce thinks Thailand could suffer a 160-billion-baht loss.
Not all is doom and gloom for Thailand with Trump as President. Thai leaders will remain balanced in their foreign policy, not choosing sides, even with harsh trade tariffs. Thailand has and will continue to hedge to preserve “its strategic autonomy and enhances its bargaining chip on the international stage.” It will not portray itself as an enemy of China and the America. In terms of economics, Thai Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan thinks there could be a chance for Thai products to substitute Chinese products in the United States. There are opportunities to court foreign investors, though some think the contrary.
Military relations are the only bright spot in Thai-U.S. relations with a formal treaty. Both nations still engage in the Cobra Gold military training drills and exchanges, though they have been downgraded. The United States still gives aid and sells weapons to Thailand, but even these have decreased. Politically, Thailand’s military intervention in elections seems to be of little annoyance to U.S. conservative administrations, including Trump, so less focus on the lack of democracy would improve relations.
Notwithstanding the positives, Thailand will gain little from Trump because of his goal to countering China and other nations’ growth at the expense of the United States. He will continue to ignore the lack of democracy in the country, but this will not make Thailand safe from Trump’s economic wars. Thai-Chinese relations are a threat to President Trump. In addition, Thailand’s trade surplus puts it at risk of a Trump tariff attack. The U.S. President is ignoring the ASEAN states; this can be seen with Trump’s economic warnings, not realizing the domino effect it will have on U.S. allies, like Thailand. Though the main target for the new administration is China, it cares little about how it will impact Thailand. Trump is on a path to marginalize regional powers that could actually help the United States counterbalance China in Southeast Asia.
Thailand & China
Now, to look at the Thai-China side of the triangle. In some ways, drawing close to China is better for the current Thai government, and this relationship will only continue to grow. Most of Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s policies have strengthened relations with the Chinese. Part of this could be due to pressure from the conservative establishment that her party has recently aligned with. So far, she is more focused on “soft power” -- trying to sell Thailand’s image for investors and tourists. There is a chance that her father’s previous business dealings with U.S. companies will tilt the country slightly away from Beijing, but China still has a large footprint in the country. Thailand’s foreign policy hedging between China and the United States has seen some imbalance recently because it has received more economic benefits from China, with even more to come. China has become an alternative for economic and military partnering, especially after the Asian Financial Crisis and increased pressure from U.S. democratic Presidents to clean up Thailand’s domestic politics. China is Thailand’s number one trader, valued in 2023 at $126.3 billion with a surplus of $25.1 billion. About 40% of Thailand’s agricultural produce goes north. China invests heavily in Thailand with about 1000 Chinese businesses putting money into the country, measured at $7 billion. The industries of most interest for China in Thailand are manufacturing, electric cars, digital money, and new energy. Another major area is tourism, estimated at $5.4 billion spent by China in 2023. Thailand is making a big push to attract more visitors, as was seen at the Harbin Ice and Snow Festival in January 2025, celebrating the 50th anniversary of Thai-China relations. However, the recent abduction of Chinese nationals in Thailand has caused some concern for travelers. The Thai government is creating many incentives to attract Chinese entrepreneurs like the Free Trade Agreement between the two countries, tax exemptions, preferential trade negotiations, and low cost of business operations.
Close economic ties with China have drawbacks for Thailand. As stated previously, Trump’s trade war puts Thailand in danger of becoming a dumping ground for Chinese goods. Consumers’ pocketbooks will get a break, but local businesses cannot compete, with the most likely result being the loss of jobs. There would be a damaging impact on about 30% of Thai industries, said the Federation of Thai Industries. Thai policymakers have urged for better checks on low-quality, low-cost products and other protections like the current 7% import tax. It will be interesting to see how Beijing responds if Bangkok decides to increase the import tax. There has also been a problem with China banning Thai syrup, which is estimated to cause up to a $30 million loss.
Another area where Thailand and China are making major progress is in the security realm. The first joint military exercise took place in 2007, with Thai scholar Paul Chambers saying that this was an “attempt to balance the United States against China to boost state security.” Exchanges, cooperation, and arms sales accelerated after the 2014 military coup when Obama’s administration threatened to cut aid. Now, Thailand and China engage in the naval exercise Blue Strike and the air-combat exercise Falcon Strike. Many Thai officers are going to China for military education. Thai and Chinese security forces have worked together to patrol the border of the Shan state area of Myanmar for illegal activity with the establishment of a coordination center, and have practiced counterterrorist prevention in Kunming, Yunnan Province. Thailand has been getting better deals on military equipment like drones from China, since U.S. drones are too expensive. As of the end of 2024, 44% of Thailand’s military imports come from China (China and the United States are the two largest military providers for Thailand). As an alternative military partner to the United States, Thailand’s relations with China are part of its hedging policy to balance U.S. influence, but Thailand also seem to be getting a better economic deal from Beijing.
Bangkok will not 100% join the Chinese camp because of some strategic complications in the region. Thai leaders are concerned about China’s growing military interest in the Gulf of Thailand. For example, in 2019, China signed a secret agreement with Thailand’s rival, Cambodia, allowing it to use the Ream Naval Base. Thai and U.S. leaders interpreted this move as another attempt by China to expand its military reach in the area, which can also be seen with the growing number of Chinese police patrol boats. Beijing has stated publicly that its use of the base is not for military purposes. Then, there is the recent Funan-Techo Canal infrastructure project in the Gulf of Thailand, diverting trade routes to Cambodia and increasing Phnom Penh’s government revenue. Notwithstanding some of the latent issues, Thailand is still beholden to China. Recently, Thailand acquiesced to Beijing’s demands for the return of Uyghur Chinese citizens who had been in the country illegally.
Conclusion
Thailand’s position in the U.S.-China rivalry will be tested with Trump’s presidency and will weather the storm by hedging between the superpowers but bending more towards China. When thinking about which relationship benefits Thailand the most, it is the Thai-Chinese connection. Trump overlooked the country’s lack of democracy and will continue to do so, but now he is focused on hurting any country that has a trade surplus with the United States and has good relations with China, whom the president sees as his chief enemy. His policies are centered on putting America’s interest first, with no regard for allies. Thai trade with the United States could suffer or improve, but, either way, the Thai Prime Minister has shown early in her tenure that the country wants to cater to China. Thailand already has large Chinese investments, and Trump’s tariffs will divert more products to Thai soil. Investments and business opportunities will follow as the Thai government has created many economic enticements for China. There are some worries about local jobs and businesses and China’s strong relations with Cambodia. Thus, Bangkok still keeps its door open to the United States as a counterbalancing force. There are still avenues for U.S. leaders to improve America’s economic and military standing, but Trump’s insistence on an America First mindset will hurt U.S. relations with Thailand and push its historical ally into the hands of its strategic competitor – China.
P. Mike Rattanasengchanh is Assistant Professor of Asian History at Midwestern State University. His research and teaching interests are U.S. and Asian History, specifically Southeast and East Asia, U.S. foreign relations, right-wing governments, public diplomacy and propaganda, Vietnam War, Cold War, and counterinsurgency.
The views expressed in this article represent those of the author(s) and not those of The Carter Center.
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That’s all from Atlanta. Y’all be good.
Great piece! China-Thai relations are likely to improve as U.S.-Thai relations are likely to become more strained. Though I disagree with the idea that Trump views China as his “chief enemy.” He might view them as an adversary on trade, but that’s it. China isn’t a geopolitical enemy to Trump. He doesn’t care about Taiwan, human rights, of whether countries use force to achieve political objectives.